Why Obamania is not translating to votes: Paging Hillary ?!?!

Barack Obama should be trouncing John McCain in the 2008 Presidential Campaign but he isn’t. Consider this, although the security situation in Iraq has greatly improved, the war is still greatly unpopular with the American public with over 60% of the public saying the war hasn’t been worth the squeeze….or the juice….or however that saying goes.

Add-on the reality that the Republican brand is “un-sellable dog food,” in comparison to that delicious Alpo the Democrats are pushing (according to these percentages), and I think the Obama Campaign is in a state of unexpected shock

Trust More on Issues July 2008
Issue	Dems	GOPs	Net Dem Advtg.
Economy	47%	37%	+10
Gov’t Ethics & Corruption	40%	29%	+11
Nat’l Security/War on Terror	40%	45%	-5
Iraq	41%	42%	-1
Health Care	55%	34%	+21
Social Security	48%	37%	+11
Education	50%	33%	+17
Taxes	46%	41%	+5
Immigration	37%	37%	Even
Abortion	47%	37%	+10

Although his party is seen as better at handling all the issues (minus Iraq) Senator Obama has failed to open a substantial lead in most polls. As a student of history I recognize that Presidential Campaigns by nature are very tight, and 6 point leads (which Obama holds in quite a few polls) are bigger than those George Bush managed to amass in the 2000 or 2004 Election.

Below is a collection of polls from realclearpolitics.com

Again, Obama IS winning, I repeat, Obama IS winning, but the equivalent of what he is experiencing is on par with Tiger Woods holding a 1 shot lead over (insert golfer of your choice) in a match-play runoff. Meaning…it’s great he’s winning, but man we all expected a 5 & 3 blowout (that’s a big win in golf talk). I would really love to hear why most folks think this election is polling the way it is.

Is it racism? Is McCain Rocky Balboa? Has the Obama Campaign failed thus far?

Is it because Obama has just become nationally known? Are these just meaningless polls?

And the one explanation I’m leaning towards

Should the Democrats have picked Hillary and is she needed as VP to sure up votes ?

Whatever you think the case may be, comment below and add your take to the conversation.

There’s my verse now you come in with the chorus!!!

~ by americalives on July 30, 2008.

Posted in News, Op-ed, Politics
Tags: Barack Obama, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, Iraq, Iraq War, John McCain, Polls

75 Responses to “Why Obamania is not translating to votes: Paging Hillary ?!?!”

I’m responding to your request at my blog, Astrology Mundo, for a comment. I’m holding off on looking at Obama’s chart again until his birthday, Aug. 4. To answer your question, I think that there are lots of swing voters who don’t like either Senator McCain or Senator Obama. I love to follow popular culture and it’s fascinating to me that a film is coming out this weekend, I believe, with Kevin Costner, called “Swing Vote.”
As a former John Edwards fan, I was devastated by the news of the “love child” and the way the candidate has managed the media on this issue. I think he would have made a great vice-presidential candidate for Obama.
Hilary? Stay tuned for the convention. I think this is the calm before the storm. Right now, American voters are like the deer paralyzed by the headlights in the face of rising fuel and prices, falling home prices, and outsourcing of jobs overseas. Hope this is what you’re looking for. Thanks for writing at my blog, Astrology Mundo: http://astrologymundo.wordpress.com/

Monica said this on July 30, 2008 at 3:50 pm | Reply
It’s just the element of the unknown that people aren’t comfortable with yet. Also, people just aren’t paying attention. They need a break from politics until after Labor Day and into October when they can begin making up their mind.

That’s why neither candidate can crack 50 percent.

Craig Berger said this on July 30, 2008 at 3:50 pm | Reply
Buyers remorse. Period.

Texas Hill Country said this on July 30, 2008 at 3:54 pm | Reply
Obama a choreographed candidate, his “we are the ones we’ve been waiting for” crap makes sn sense, his smearing of the clintons as racist is the most disgusting tactic i’ve ever seen, he’s a know-nothing hack and he has zero experience. I’ve never seen anything in his past that shows he has ever done anything for anyone, and i will not be force fed this pile of crap.

jess said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:01 pm | Reply
The country is getting closer to reality… the closer we get to Election Day.

Example: Why should I worry about tomorrow when I cant do anything about it until tomorrow. OBama is a Fad. That will pass to.

What people should be screaming about is the BIG mistake the Congress has made with HR 3221. US Senator Chris Dodd introduced and US Congressman Joseph Courtney supported the amendment to allow ALL Credit card transaction sales with the BIG retailers to be reported back to the US Federal Government.

Wow ! Courtney & would NOT allow the US Telephone Companies to assistance our surveillance programs BUT anything you & I purchase at EBAY, Amazon or Best BUY gets reported ???

Go figure.

Carl Slicer, blog editor, http://www.VernonGop.com “It’s only your money !”

cslicer said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:12 pm | Reply
Because us Obama grass roots supporters haven’t even started canvassing for the general election yet. A lot of us are still recovering from the primaries. He’ll win by 8 points.

Matt said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:19 pm | Reply
After talking with a few of my colleagues, all of which are Obama supporters, they seem to be wary of his skills as a candidate they can sink their teeth into. Not that they’ll vote for anyone else, but they want him to debate, they want him to cut the fluff, they want him to hunker down and do more than just pack in a bunch of people in a stadium. The overseas trip was cute, but in some circles, they questioned why it seemed as though he were trying to get the foreign vote, as if those people mattered. Making speeches in foreign countries isn’t foreign experience.

I think that people on the fence might feel the same way (as described above) too. Obama has the personality and charm, but he needs more than that to sweep the election. Folks have to feel comfortable that he isn’t just a fluffy politician. They were burned a couple years ago with an ineffective Congress. They thought Nancy Pelosi was the answer to all their problems, but that hasn’t turned out to be the case.

There…I’m off my soapbox now.

HF said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:37 pm | Reply
The answer is obviously racism.

But Hillary would be facing the same challenge in the form of sexism with these right wingers so that is not really an issue.

As the summer and fall drags on, and McCain continually deteriorates politically (and physically) Obama should pull (and poll) further and further ahead.

Have a peaceful day,
Bill

highboldtage said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:38 pm | Reply
He didn’t win the primaries. He is disparaging 18 Million Democratic voters as racist. Good luck with all that.
PS: The Democrats for a day? Went home.

edgeoforever said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:39 pm | Reply
Obama is focused on appearance; “Bling”, I think they refer to it as. A big smile, good looks, and so on and so forth. Why doesn’t he have the huge lead, though? We Americans like our celebrities; we follow their every move. When it comes to Presidents, however, we’re slightly more skeptical. I grant you that we do tend to lean towards the better-looking person, but also… I think people are starting to get tired of our polarized political positions.

Both the McCain and Obama campaigns are aware of the fact that they need Centrists and Independent voters if they want to win. Believe it or not, there isn’t as huge a difference between the two candidates as there might seem at first. They just want you to think they’re different. Approval ratings for both Congress and the White House are rock-bottom right now, and evidence suggests that the people elected simply cannot find a way to work together. They’re so focused on party lines that they forget how to truly discuss things like reasonable adults.

They are, for example, saying that there are not enough minorities in high ranks in the Military. They’re not being “represented”. I can’t say I care if people are represented demographically or not; I want the jobs to be given to the people best qualified for them. The idea of a military is to use the most talented people. Doing otherwise is just asking for trouble. Sure, promote an African American guy if he’s more or equally qualified for the job than someone else, but don’t do it if he isn’t.

We’ve had exactly one Independent President; George Washington. He was of the opinion that political parties were a very bad idea… and honestly, I agree with him. I’m Independent. In this campaign, I support McCain, because he has military experience and he actually knows what he’s doing. Obama is appearance; McCain is substance.

Rednal said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:40 pm | Reply
Polls really do not mean anything anymore because more people now have cell phones as opposed to landlines. Pollsters do not call cell phones which leaves a large section of the American public unable to participate in the polls. On top of that how can calling 2-3 thousand people really show what millions want?

Texan in NYC said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:40 pm | Reply
I think the Democratic primary makes it very clear that, by and large, Americans don’t vote based on issues; they vote based on demographics. There were Obama and Clinton supporters ready to *kill* each other – and based on their voting records and public speeches, it is almost absolutely impossible to determine any difference between their policies. Except maybe on ethanol subsidies, and no one is going to vote based on ethanol subsidies.

In fact, the demographics of the Obama/Clinton primary gave people weird, completely invented ideas about their policies. Obama was widely seen as the “liberal” and Clinton as the “centrist” – despite *almost identical voting records*. Why was she “centrist”? Because she was white and old, I guess.

And I think demographics are the reason the country isn’t breaking for Obama in any kind of “big way”. A lot of the voters aren’t from a big city like Chicago; they aren’t black; they aren’t young. So even if they don’t like the war in Iraq and think Bush’s policies are responsible for ruining the economy, they aren’t going to vote for Obama.

It’s said that people aren’t rational beings; they’re rationalizing beings. We make the choices we want to make and then we come up with rationalizations in retrospect. I think it’s true. I suspect that something like 95% of people who voted for Bush in 2004 would simply never, ever vote for Obama.

Look at Wyoming, for example. McCain is kicking Obama’s ass there by about 15 points. Is that because Obama has any particular policies that are bad for Wyoming? I doubt it. Has Wyoming suffered any less than the rest of us from the slumping economy? Are they benefiting from the Iraq war in some way the rest of us aren’t? No. It’s because Obama is from a culture that’s radically different from Wyoming, and McCain is from a culture that’s less different. Demographics.

Hyperbole said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:41 pm | Reply
In may work as a volunteer it is easy to see that there exists a thread of anti Obama the “slick talking black man” at its very core. How dare “that man” be shown such support in Europe!

That’s why it will be harder to win over HRC committed Democrats then it will be to garner the support of a share of Republicans and Independents.

A good example of that is the comments by “jess said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:01 pm” who is clearly a Democrat.

However while on the trail I have spoken to a number of Republicans and Independents who may not like Barack Obama BUT will vote on the issues and agree that the current state of play is not working. Nor will more of McSame help!

RFO said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:43 pm | Reply
Obama is not ahead by large margins although he should be leading McCain by 20 points due to the mess King George is leaving behind. The reason Obama is not ahead by wide margins is because people are finally starting to see that its a glitz and smoke and mirrors and pretty speeches and little else. He flips on many issues, he has criminal, racista and terrorist associates that most Americans would not want in their homes. He is arrogant and starting to believe his own press. The American people are tired of hearing about him and they r starting to realize that the MEDIA have glamorized him just as the Media trashed Hillary Clinton every chance it got. Had Obama been properly vetted in the first place he would NOT have won alot of the earlier primaries and Hillary would be the nominee. But these so called Caucus states are breeding grounds for deception. Also that racist Oprah Winfrey played to the crowds when she used her Southern accent to convince Iowa and S Carolina voters that Obama was a good ole Southern boy. She and Obama have been playing the race card ever since. The media fails to report that 2 hugely popular rock groups were at that FREE concert in Germany and thats why there was a sea of people there. Our media said Obama was news worthy and a “breath of Fresh air. ‘ Chris Matthews on MSNBC says he gets “Tingling up his leg when Obama speaks- have u ever heard anything more ridiculous from a news person ??? We will find out soon where al lthe money has been coming from and it isnt from average American families like Obama claims..more like a Mideast connection. Moveon.org and Billionaaire George Soros have bought and paid for Obama and he will do what they tell him to do. He is no friend of Israel either. People are slowly catching onto him. Many os us do not trust him at all. McCain is no prize but we can trust him to keep us safe. too much is unknown about obama and his clan will only tell you wha tthey want u to hear. The next big scandal will emerge soon. But will it be in time for him to lose the nomination ? No it wont….The biggest scandals will emerge after he is nominated because the Republicans do not want to face the stronger candidate- Hillary Clinton. The one candidate who could win but wont because the DNC has been hijacked by ultra liberal idiots like Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Brazille etc ….. Many of us have left the DNC after being lifelong Democrats. They no longer represent us !!!!

junglejim123 said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:43 pm | Reply
“Hyperbole said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:41 pm”

Excellent comment!

RFO said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:48 pm | Reply
This isn’t complicated. It’s the middle of the summer. Historically, polls this far out from the election are meaningless. They’ve rarely ever even come close to predicting the final results. It’s not buyer’s remorse. It’s not that he needs Hillary to win, it’s just that it’s the middle of the friggin’ summer and nobody really cares at this point.

A second reason is that the polarization of this country didn’t suddenly change over the last four years. Alot of people are going to vote for McCain simply because he’s a Republican, and vote for Obama simply because he’s a Democrat. This is a closely divided country.

Talking about the polls this far out is a pretty well meaningless exercise. Let’s re-visit this subject in six or seven weeks and then we can have this discussion.

Big Blue said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:52 pm | Reply
The comments by “junglejim123 said this on July 30, 2008 at 4:43 pm” verify my point.

A large percentage of the HRC wing of the DNC will not support Barack. Not all 18 milliion but certainly a large number. I see this friction everyday with our local DEC.

However if we focus on the issues in depth I expect the electorate to break towards Barack in the last two weeks of the General.

RFO said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:02 pm | Reply
The last thing I heard was the election was not until November so how do you know he’s not way ahead. I know your not going by those stupid polls. I don’t know any body who has been called by those poll takers so you are going by false numbers. I have been voting since I was 18 years old and I guess I never really noticed how stupid you people are it’s like you don’t live in the real world. You are so used of people not paying atttention, but guess what there are going to be alot of people voting this year that have never voted before and they are paying attention. I was sick to my stomach when George Bush won the second time but some people are just that stupid.

Anonymous said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:04 pm | Reply
Posters: “Hyperbole” and “RFO” speak for me. Although I do have my doubts that the so called pumas will ever break for Obama. They are convinced, for whatever reason, that the election was stolen from Hillary and are set on voting for McCain if not to “punish” the DNC, Obama and his supporters than at the very least they are determined to make a statement.

Kristen said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:10 pm | Reply
If people would be honest, it is pure and simple racism. The group he is having the most problem with are senior citizens, who are set in their ways. Why do people keep asking this question when they really don’t want the real answer.

I watch McCain on Larry King and for the life of me, I couldm’t understand why anyone would vote for him. He never answered one question and he kept saying the same thing over and over. The Republican Party could have done better than this but if you want another Bush, he is the best man for the job

Monique Virden said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:13 pm | Reply
what do you mean by “translating to votes.”

I’m pretty sure I don’t get to vote until November, and pre-election polls just don’t mean too much to me.

most citizens will start paying attention as the date approaches, and once the votes are tallied we’ll actually know something.

and for anyone interested, the nyt article, today 7-30, on Obama’s time as a law professor at the Univ. of Chicago Law School is a nice little partial bio on a man with a plan.

wordsplay said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:19 pm | Reply
I agree with Big Blue: “It’s the middle of the friggin’ summer”. I also agree with Hyperobole’s demographics point. After all, 2000 proved that there are more beer-drinking buddies out there than we thought. 😉

Something else to consider. How many polls are of “likely voters”? How many polls take the massive Democratic registration numbers of the past year into account for creating their call lists? How many of those new registrants are solely cell-phone users, to Texan in NYC’s point? I think the polls reflect how the electorate *might* have voted, if it weren’t for the fact that Obama has changed the electorate. They are newspaper indicators in an internet world until they can factor in the changes in the electorate.

MYL said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:24 pm | Reply
I think there are several reasons.

1) We’re still in July. It’s still early. There are still a lot of people who just aren’t paying attention. They know who McCain is. They don’t know who Obama is, and they haven’t paid enough attention to really find out.

2) On election very similar to this – Reagan vs. Carter in 1980 (with Obama filling in the role of Reagan, no on policy, but in the outsider vs. disliked insider role) – Reagan actually didn’t lead carter until after the conventions and the debates because people were uncertain about whether they liked him, but after people started actually paying attention, they decided they did and he won in a landslide. Here is an article talking about it:

http://pundits.thehill.com/2008/07/23/obama-mccain-reagan-carter/

One person said it was buyer’s remorse, but this isn’t supported. Obama is now getting support of between 85% and 90% of Democrats in most polls, which is about the level one would expect based on previous elections, so it is definitely not lack of unity among Democrats which is holding him down, despite what the PUMAs may wish.

I should also note: I wonder how many blowouts clearly look like a blowout this early on. Clearly the Carter/Reagan blowout didn’t. The Bush/Dukakis blowout definitely didn’t (if anything, it looked like it might be a blowout the other way).

Heck here is a poll form July ’84 showing Mondale down on Reagan by only 7:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F05EEDD1039F930A25754C0A962948260&scp=2&sq=reagan+lead+mondale+poll+june&st=nyt

That doesn’t look all too different from some polls we see today between Obama and McCain.

So I think the primary point is that it’s just too early to talk about why isn’t x leading or why isn’t x leading by y amount.

fleetadmiralj said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:31 pm | Reply
Because he is an elitist snob and arrogant.

The Democratic party is primarily working class Americans and someone like smug Obama just does not click with them. I agree he should at LEAST have a 20 point advantage over McCain right now. It’s a Dem year and this election should basically be handed to a Dem candidate, yet Obama cannot even break 50%.

The Obama hype has reached it’s peak and I really think that if you are going to vote for him, you’ve already made up your mind. The fence sitters will either vote McCain, vote third party or stay home.

I’m a Hillary supporter that will vote McCain in November. NOBAMA!

oo7angel said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:41 pm | Reply
Thanks for all the great responses folks.

I must say alot of you are dismissing the polls. Either stating that they cant be trusted or that they do no account for an accurate electorate.

My response to that is polling is still very accurate. Minus New Hampshire (where the polls had hillary out) the polls were pretty good at picking the winner of the contest. Can anyone point out a state where the polls released prior to that contest were way out of whack and not representative of the eventual outcome?

Secondly, there is a thing called the Bradley effect, referring to the fact that when blacks candidates are involved they often poll well ahead of their eventual results because individuals are afraid to state their true voting intentions in fear of looking “racist or close minded” to the poller. E.G. a closet bigot says he/she will vote obama when they would never give the man the time of day.

what say you ?

americalives said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:43 pm | Reply
Obama hasn’t created any sustainable jobs for his constituents in Illinois, but he has contracted many ad agencies, production companies, and consultants with the millions of dollars of donations to his campaign. He wants a good paying job with lots of perks, and he has so many “fans” adoring him and helping him get this job. As a business owner, my confidence in his skills is very low and I will probably close my business if he gets elected. I’ve crunched the numbers, and his “change” puts me and my employees out of business.

Michael--US said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:45 pm | Reply
Obama should be way up in the polls but time will tell. I think that even though America know like World that Obama is the better canidate there are a lot of folks that carry the old time bias in regards to Obama .. they rather vote for a white, elderly man who is not in good health versus an African American… I think that is it… now that way of thinking is dying off… hence the younger vote… which I think will get us over the top. The experience thing does not fly with me anyomore … we had a Pres with Gov experience and we are in this big old tired mess almost 8 yrs after mr. experience… it is time for change and innovation yes America will do the right thing … I have faith

AHerbert said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:46 pm | Reply
Great poll.

I think the results of the polls say more about Americans than they do about Obama.

I have four questions:
1. Who are they polling? I’ve never been polled
2. With all the damage that Bush will leave behind and McCain promises to continue — what’s wrong with Americans?
3. Do Americans get a thrill from suffering?

Neither Bush nor McCain are true republicans — Bush has spent more than the last three presidents combined and he believes in a bigger not smaller government. McCain promises much of the same so,

4. Why are republicans voting for anti-republican republicans?

Paulette
http://www.letustalk.wordpress.com

Paulette said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:47 pm | Reply
National polls don’t count for anything, except to give the media a talking point. What matters is the electoral maps.

Check out Karl Rove’s latest:

Click to access McCain-Obama-07-23-08.pdf

All Obama has to do is hold on to the states he is currently leading in, and he wins the presidency.

Senator McCain has to make up 88 electoral votes to win.

Jeff said this on July 30, 2008 at 5:56 pm | Reply
If you think Hillary would have a huge lead, you’re mistaken. She turns out the Republican base like nobody else. It’s a tight race and would be even if she were the candidate. It’s been a long time since we’ve had this type of election – no incumbent or vice-president running – so people are still largely undecided. Hillary would have been a good candidate, and had she won the primary, I’d be behind here and encouraging folks to do the same. But, please, try to accept this – she lost. She’s not going to be the candidate, nor the president. Obama is. Support him. By doing so, you support 99% of the same causes that Hillary supports.

Kevin in Austin said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:01 pm | Reply
The answer is quite simple as to why barak obama does not have a big lead right now because he is black and the fact that many people in this country do not read or get their news form Fox one of the most popular news sites on the internet and on T.V. This news organization often presents false information or information slanted towards the extremely conservative point of view.Lastly we in this country live in one of the most violent racist countries in the world.I am not really confident that the older white population in this country are ready to elect a black man to the highest office in the land.I believe that the rest of the world is waiting for us to make this jump but they may need to wait a lot longer because of the degree of hatred and anger that continues to persist in this country today.

Len said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:02 pm | Reply
I’m a supporter of Obama, and I’ve come to realize that people are still not ready to see someone like him as the leader of the free world. Something in me almost doesn’t want him to win, although I’m sure he could do the job. I would rather him work with the people of america and not the politics of the government.

Plus, the end of the American Empire is approaching quickly, and I would hate for him to be in power while that happens. It will give certain people more reason to hate minorities and think less of them. I will however vote for him, but I know the reality of America. A bi-racial man can’t win. There are far too many “Americans” who have misconstrued ideas of people of different ethnicities. So I’m preparing myself for another 4 years of war and economic mishaps. I hope you do the same.

FutureofAmerica said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:04 pm | Reply
Here’s another post by a blogger with a few comments on the subject:

http://deannaizme.wordpress.com/2008/07/28/obamas-lead-in-the-polls/

Bruce said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:05 pm | Reply
Over 80% of America wants change, but many, mostly racists and older whites, cannot see it coming in the form of a black man! Then there are those supposed 15% who can’t make up their minds. Logic tells them they should be voting for a change and voting democratic after 8 years of George Bush, but again, they’re thinking it hard to give that vote to a black man. Some might, many will not.
Obama is running a masterful campaign, McCain’s can’t even compare. Obama’s skin color is the only reason he has not jumped ahead. Honest people in and out of the media will admit to this. The only one whom I have seen say this out loud is David Gergen on CNN.
I’ve never before heard of a presidential candidate going overseas and the media making it a do or die issue as to whether he can prove that he “looks” presidential. And when he does indeed prove that he “looks” presidential, all of a sudden, the black man is too arrogant and acting too presidential! Obama is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

Henrita Barber said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:09 pm | Reply
I think others have said it better, but mostly my opinion is that the conventions and candidate debates haven’t taken place yet. When they do, I am sure the interest will come back up in a big way, and that’s when we will really see how this thing is going to shake out. It was a long primary, and I think we all needed a break. As a side note, I do think there are some people who are racist and some who are do-or-die Republicans, and they will vote McCain regardless.

KJ

KJ said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:18 pm | Reply
This is why you’re not seeing the lead in the pools:

Why report news when creating it is so much more fulfilling?

MsJoanne said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:19 pm | Reply
Simply put, it’s his socialist views and proposals. Take from those that have it and give it to everyone else – after all, it’s for the collective good. The majority of Americans are not ready to accept this.

It’s not about sexism or racism. If it was, why did the only white guy left standing (John Edwards) never get any traction in the Democratic primaries? If there’s any racism playing a role, it is within the black community, which supports Obama by something like 90%. Are they voting for him because they share all of his views or because he’s black? Yes, the black community tends to lean Democratic, but not by this margin. How many women were voting for Hilary because she was a woman?

50% of the population pays less than 3% of the income tax in this country, 10% pay over 70%. Obama wants to take even more from this 10% and give it (health care, social programs, etc) to the other 50% because it is for the collective good – a very socialist viewpoint. Obama does not understand how capital markets work and the investments it takes to keep them humming along.

This is without a doubt the Democrat’s election to lose. Given the animosity towards Bush, the economy (jobs, gas prices, housing, etc.), the unpopular nature of the Iraq war and many other factors, the Democratic candidate should be 20 points on the Republican one, but that is not the case. As concerned as voters are about all these issues, they are not ready to elect a socialist leader – regardless of their race or gender.

Obama is a socialist and the more people realize this, the fewer and fewer will flock to his side.

Tam said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:26 pm | Reply
Re: Jeff’s comment above

If you look at Rove’s current analysis, you will also see that Obama lead is slipping – down 24 to McCain’s down 5 – all of which move to the toss up. If this trend continues – and it will, Obama will not have enough electoral votes to win, it will be McCain.

Tam said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:33 pm | Reply
Its because he is black in America and seen as an outsider. People both good meaning and otherwise refused to see him as an American politician. They would rather believe bad things about him then good because its what they think of black men. You talk about the Republican brand being on the outs, try touting the Blackman brand and running for president at the same time, with an odd name. In the eyes of the plummer in Georgia, why do we need a black president? In the eyes of the Court Officer in West VA what does Obama mean? If all you know of Obama is that he is good looking, speaks well, and is black, why would you vote for him. Most of us dont even listen to what he says, we listen to what others say he says. Keep in mind, we as a nation knew less about Carter, Clinton, and to some degree GW Bush then we know about Obama but the one thing we do know is, he is black.

KENNETH M. said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:40 pm | Reply
Have you noticed that he’s black??

C’mon… this is painfully obvious. CNN’s Jack Cafferty asked the same question yesterday and I give you the same response that I gave him. If a young, oratorically gifted, charismatic white Democrat was running against an aged, gaff-prone, tainted white Republican saddled with 7.5+ years of abysmal party failure, what do you think the polls would show???

174 days till the end of the Bush administration.

Grog in Ohio said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:45 pm | Reply
A couple reasons. I’ve done more than my share of political phone banking and canvassing since 1992, and most Americans don’t become fully engaged in the national campaigns until during and after the national conventions. Those numbers will be more significant. The second reason is more permanent- with 12% of the electorate believing any man named “Barack Obama” must be a born or convereted Muslim, and 25% of Clinton supporters insisting on a policy of PUMA (poltical unity their —), racism is at play.

smoothtalker said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:53 pm | Reply
Did not want to give the impression that Obama will not win, I think he will but 1 or 2 points. Things have improved in the US but I think the polls show that people are skeptical about a black, new, politition at a time of war and ression. It does not make them racist, it makes them American. It is American to stick to your own kind durning trying times. It is American to try the tried and tested during hard times. Racist is hate based, this recoil towards Obama is more fear and ignorance based.

KENNETH M. said this on July 30, 2008 at 6:58 pm | Reply
junglejim123, why so negitive. Could it be juat that Obama is not experiaced enough and wont get the votes? Why does he have to be a monster bought and paid for by some shiek? How do you know why there was a sea of people in Germany. Did that look like a crowd that 2 good bands would generate? Is not that the same thing they said about his Portland speack when 80K people showed up. Its because he is black that you are saying these things right? You can say it. We understand if it is. But lets end this with some honest statements. Say “I will not vote for a blackman” if that is how you feel. Then we can deal with it. I could be wrong but lets talk about it if I am.

KENNETH M. said this on July 30, 2008 at 7:23 pm | Reply
Last year this time, few people had ever heard of Obama. Most of those who had heard of him gave him absolutely no chance of winning the primary, much less the general election. A black guy with a Muslim name? No way! Fast-forward to today. He has trounced the Clinton Machine and now people are asking, “Why is he not leading by a bigger margin?” Talk about having to prove yourself again and again.

But I’m not worried. He will prove himself. No other politician has consistently embarrassed the “experts” more than Obama. I expect this to continue with the November election.

Then people will be asking after the first year of his presidency: Why hasn’t he solved all our problems that we spent years or decades creating?

I can’t believe that it bears repeating, but: Obama is not the Messiah. He’s just a savvy politician bearing a message and a program that the country desperately needs.

Myron said this on July 30, 2008 at 7:28 pm | Reply
I agree with several of the posts, that the reason is primarily racial. Given the same Obama credentials packaged in a white male, the polls would look quite a bit different today. I, like many others, am waiting for the “main event” to begin. Maybe I’m giving too much credit to the American public, but once the comparisons REALLY begin side by side in debates, and if the republicans ever stop attacking and whining and put forth some real policies, I believe people will understand the magnitude of what is at stake here. There really is no choice unless you want to continue accelerating our rapid downward spiral.

Peggy said this on July 30, 2008 at 7:29 pm | Reply
Peggy,
The same credentials were packaged in white man – John Edwards. Why didn’t he rise to the top of the Democratic nomination? It’s not racism; it’s socialism. It’s not that Obama won’t get elected because he’s black, he won’t get elected because he’s a socialist.

Tam said this on July 30, 2008 at 7:38 pm | Reply
TOM, that would mean Edwards is socialist also? I am just trying to understand your point, not challenging it. I think Hillary would have won if you were right. She was more center left but still lost. I dont think he is hated because he is black, but I do think he is less trusted because of it. He is the image of the unknown dont you think?

KENNETH M. said this on July 30, 2008 at 7:45 pm | Reply
I hope that Hillary does not take Obama’s vp and I hope he loses. I believe he is going to lose after the Republicans get done with his inexperienced self. I am sick of Obama and he only “won” the nomination due to cheating by the DNC. I also think it was his sexism and his own racism that has John McCain winning among likely voters. He cannot seal the deal with women. He preaches Roe vs Wade which is sexist itself because women do not tend to vote on that issue. Its because Obama has managed to insult everyone who voted against him and calling people a racist wasn’t a good idea. He can pick Hillary if he wants but she won’t take it. She despises him for good reason.

Hillarysmygirl08 said this on July 30, 2008 at 7:52 pm | Reply
What is the use in responding to a horse race that has not been ran yet. Mr. Obama’s problems are not his. For the same reasons that we got GWB years of poor insight is the same reason McCain
is even a candidate. The so-called fair news media have nothing to do in this slow cycle. If you take out all the Obama new then all we will have are jet packs and crying businessmen.

POWELS MD. TIMES 3 said this on July 30, 2008 at 7:53 pm | Reply
All we have to say to those Hillary lovers and those republicans is that Jim Crow still lives. For those who really think that we hvae come a long way, GOD HELP YOU. If you want to comment on our statements please do some research first. Any other comments fall on the same ears of Woodrow Wilson’s 4th speech at the Getts.

POWELS MD. TIMES 3 said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:02 pm | Reply
Kenneth M.
I will concur that he is the image of the unknown – that coupled with his far left viewpoints (i.e. socialism) – scares the heck out of a lot of voters and John Edwards scared me just as much. The far left of the Democratic Party – who are the ones who end up choosing the candidate – are socialists in many aspects. Hillary and Edwards are more to the center (and why they lost), but still carry many of the same socialist views, especially with their take from the rich for the collective good of all approach.

Even though it appears he will support Obama I firmly believe that Colin Powell would have garnered a great deal of support from many of the so-called “racists” who oppose Obama. For some reason people equate opposing Obama and his viewpoints as racism. It is not the color of his skin we oppose, it’s the visions in his mind we oppose.

Tam said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:06 pm | Reply
Tom
Peggy is right, people need to stop hiding their true feelings and just come out and say it. “I will NEVER vote for a black man” Edwards didn’t win because he didn’t present the same kind of change that Obama is talking about. The news is partly to blame on this matter. FOX news slanderous campaign that they’ve been waging for months just adds fuel to the fire. The 12% that still think he’s a muslim or that he was sworn on a bible.

Reid said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:06 pm | Reply
Why so perplexed? Very simple. Still very difficult to accept a black man as the boss. And then to deal with the bigger chip on the blacks’ shoulders. If Bush can be voted in twice, don’t be surprised if a potentially great man like Obama never makes it!

Devon said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:13 pm | Reply
Reid,
Are there some white people who won’t vote for Obama because he is black? Are there some black people who will vote for Obama (and thus not McCain) because Obama is black? I think the answer to both question is yes. The overwhelming support Obama has in the black community offsets the whites who are racists (just as the blacks are racists) because they are voting based on color and not issues and substance.

In Houston during the primary, they profiled the predominately Black, Hispanic and White voting precincts. In those precincts that, the Blacks supported Obama 85%, Hispanics supported Hillary 85%, but in the White communities, it was split 50-50? In Texas, the Democrat primary was open to all register voters, so people were free to vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary. If it was about race then, why was it not different in the white communities – and Texas is a very red state.

Tam said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:20 pm | Reply
more and more i can see that most of you white American don!t have a clue,Guys the LATINO vote will go 65/70% to Obama,you Guys don!t understand that Latino can be taking for a Ride one or two time but no three time,just keep going talking the republican don!t know what will happen with the Latino vote but hey time will tell.

rafael peralta said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:30 pm | Reply
Get over it rednecks. Win or loose, Obama is the man. Guess what the kmba stands for.

kmba74 said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:30 pm | Reply
Tom, thanks for responding. It seems that you are saying Hillary and Edwards lost because they are leftist but then why would an ultra leftist beat them? Seems like the most right of the left would win no? Also, is it fair to call them socialist just because they are Democrates on the left. Are they right of Stalin or is a red, a red? How can you hope to converse useing extream terms. Is that not like me calling McCain a robber barron just because he is on the right? Thanks again.

KENNETH M. said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:32 pm | Reply
I believe the media is trying to milk this for all it’s worth. If you say it’s a close race, people will tune in to see the drama. If it’s a blow out (which I think in reality it is) it’s nothing that generates t.v. audience viewership.

It’s not like there isn’t any precedence for news propaganda in our history….

Kimberly said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:45 pm | Reply
If you noticed during the primaries, Obama began losing to Hillary after the Rev. Wright “incident”. Unfortunately, it was too late for Hillary to recover. I personally think Race has a great deal to do with it, because Obama has made it….ie. Commercials in Florida, telling crowd in Germany “and I look different”…is he talking about his hugh ears?

Kyle said this on July 30, 2008 at 8:57 pm | Reply
I am a white male living in Canada. I have vacationed in the southeren U.S. for over 30 years and can tell that there are still a lot of racist, bigoted people who will never vote for a black man no matter how much more qualified he is. Look at Kentucky, West Virginia. They are for the most part racist, bigoted white people. You can tell from a lot of the comments left on blogs that leave no doubt that Obama has a real uphill struggle to win over white voters who for way too may are just plain, hateful racists.

Mike said this on July 30, 2008 at 9:07 pm | Reply
Mike, why is OK to vote for a man because he is black, but wrong to vote against him because he is black? I see a double standard.

Kyle said this on July 30, 2008 at 9:15 pm | Reply
People have noticed that Obama says ‘Yes, we can’ but all his policies towards energy independence lead to ‘No, we can’t’.
1) No new nuclear energy
2) No coal mining (even when US coal reserves are more than oil reserves in any part of the world, please look at statistics)
3) No lower taxes
4) He hasn’t said of any solution to raise the value of dollar.

So basically Obama;s ‘Yes we can’ = No, we can’t’

Young people who are following him as a Pied Pier need to know this. He is not the president for us when the country is in recession. He may be good but he needs more experince.

Paul said this on July 30, 2008 at 9:23 pm | Reply
Kenneth M.
In the democratic primary, you have to move to left to win the Democratic nomination – Obama moved farthest to the left and thus he was the winner. He isn’t garnering the support in the mainstream (i.e. center left/center right) because, try as he is, he cannot move far enough to the center without alienating those that got him where he’s at, the far left of the Democratic Party. Look at the recent reaction on his FISA vote. You comment about the right most left would (likely) win is only true in the general election, not the primary.

Make no mistake; I’m not a fan of the far right either, but my distaste of the far left is greater than my dislike of the far right. There was a speech Hillary gave during the primaries where she used the term for the “collective good”. Sorry, but I associated that thinking with socialism. Socialist is not an extreme term, it is a well known form of government that I happen to disagree with. I think there is a big difference between calling someone a socialist vs. a robber baron, one is a form of government; the other is a disparaging term. I’m willing to work hard for the betterment of my family and I’m willing to help those who help themselves, but some of these social programs being proposed by Obama make the government more dependent on the rich (i.e. taxes) and the poor more dependent on the government. I support policies that promote job growth and investment, which is the life blood the American (and capitalist) economy. Higher taxes and more government programs and regulation is not what we need and that is what I see Obama and a 60 seat Senate bringing to our country.

Tam said this on July 30, 2008 at 9:39 pm | Reply
we will see what it!s more important white Racist that will go to Obama or Latino that will Vote for Obama,Cnn in the last poll shows
Obama and Mccain tied at 45% jajajajajajajajajajaja only Mccain and Bush will agreed with that but all Republican will stop dreaming when Obama wins by 20/35% of the vote,white male can do whatever they want but at the End Obama will be the next President of united state Of America and then all of you American
will be seen better around the world,the racist American don!t care because they don!t travel so for them to be racist is to be proud American but now the young generation want to travel to speak spanish/french/chinesse ects those are the one that will go for Obama plus blacks/latinos and the nice non racist old American that are around 5/15% America has to change no for us the non American but for you the American white peoples, because right now it!s your last chance to prove us the rest of the world that you Guys could be trust one more time, and that the blood sukers are only the one in the gouverment and no all Americans,love your country but learn to love the rest of the world too, because we are watching and the only way for America to get out of the mess is by working together with the rest of the world specially with US the latinos countries.

rafael peralta said this on July 30, 2008 at 9:41 pm | Reply
I’m so terribly shocked that the Obama supporters insist that it’s racism. Keep making the claim and you’ll drive more people away….they don’t want to listen to that crap for another 4 – 8 years.

Obama, quite simply, is a rookie Senator with no accomplishments to his name. He’s conducted his campaign like a rock star on his final tour and many Americans don’t trust that he has any substance behind all the glitter and gloss. We aren’t electing a Special Events Coordinator…we are voting for the president of the most powerful nations on earth.

Mountain Sage

Mountain Sage said this on July 30, 2008 at 10:43 pm | Reply
Well, it is a subject for debate; however, the answer is right in front of everyone. The man always leaves more questions than he gives answers. Beyond that he has questionable alliances and shifting positions.

I am over fifty, white, female, educated,and I supported Hillary. Not, as some would suggest, because she is a woman; rather, I like her clear consiece approach to policy.

I will not vote for BHO even if I am a Democrat; not because I am a racist, but because I am a behaviorist. I observe behavior and BHO has some personality quirks that are downright terrifying. He hides behind soaring rhetoric but try to pin him down on an issue and it can not be done. Even if you do it will change tomorrow, or for a good size donation.

Some could say he is just confident; yet, if he were truly confident he would, of his own accord, tone down the hype. He has soared beyond confident into a rhelm beyond reality.

Last but not least there is no record of his accomplishments to jusify his running for President. He has gone far on very little but every time I look at him I always think, “starkist don’t want tuna that looks good, Charlie”.

Catherine said this on July 30, 2008 at 11:36 pm | Reply
This is really quite simple…bigotry. Even the most jaded citizen could teak a cold hard look at the facts and circumstances surrounding the current White House administration team and surmise that the next US president needs to be capable one things if nothing else and that is steer this nation 180 degrees until we are headed the exact opposite direction in which we are headed now.

What candidate could be the more polar opposite of Bush than Obama?

Regardless of the result of November’s General Election, one of two statements will be made on Tuesday the 4th.

Our nation will show that is was so exasperated with Bush and Cheney they even let a “black guy” be the next President…or…
Our nation will show that even though McCain appears to be an extension of Dubya, who is almost universally thought of as the worst President in the history of our republic, there was still no way in hell they were going to turn over the country to a “black guy”.

Personally I don’t believe that “they” will ever elect a black man president that doesn’t at least have the prerequisite white wife.

I think that Obama better be very careful with who’s supposed to be watching his back. There are snakes in the grass at every corner and as bad as things are in the U.S. “they” ain’t with this Black President thing.

curlymo said this on July 31, 2008 at 1:10 am | Reply
Obama is winning. And he WILL slaughter McCain in November. And that will be good for the Republicans in the long run. If by some miracle McCain wins, that will be bad for the Repubublicans in the long run because his presidency will cause division in the party and infighting.

My freindly Libertarian advice to the Republicans is: Let Obama win, for the good of your party. — I don’t want to see Obama in the White House anymore than you do. BUT, look at it this way:

In 2006, the Republican congress got voted out. The reason was that American voters wanted to punnish George W. Bush. Congress was controlled by the same party as Bush, so that fit the punnishment. — Now take into account that the Democrat congress is not popular. The only reason the DNC will win the congressional elections in November is because of Anti-Bish sentiments. (If a Democrat were President now, the Republicans would be ahead.) — So a huge Democrat majority lead by an inexpirienced politician from illinois that obviously doesn’t know what he’s doing can only be a good thing for the GOP.

I say: Let Obama win.

krissmith777 said this on July 31, 2008 at 2:23 am | Reply
Krissmith777-I can see the logic, however, 4 years of Obama is 4 years too many.

Kyle said this on July 31, 2008 at 2:39 am | Reply
I agree, Kyle. 4 years is too much. But I think we can console ourselves to the liklyhood that it will ONLY be 4 years.

krissmith777 said this on July 31, 2008 at 3:43 am | Reply
I think there is still a lot of racism and this is keeping people from supporting Obama. It’s sad that this still exists to this extent in this nation and I blame the Religious Right for fostering hate which becomes racist.

Cats r Flyfishn said this on July 31, 2008 at 3:13 pm | Reply
“Well, it is a subject for debate; however, the answer is right in front of everyone. The man always leaves more questions than he gives answers. Beyond that he has questionable alliances and shifting positions.”

Sounds like your referring to John McCain.

Cats r Flyfishn said this on July 31, 2008 at 3:17 pm | Reply
I will bring the change that changes the change to the change that you want.

The use of words is useless, change can be good or bad, and only the actions can tell the truth. Obama lacks the guts, and the experience to truly shake Washington. Maybe insteady of saying “change” on all his signs it should say “positive results”, but then he still has to explain how he’ll pull that off, and I don’t think he can.

Lane said this on July 31, 2008 at 5:34 pm | Reply
Let’s face it. We live in a racist society? It’s been that way since the white man set fot on this continent. Sure there are a lot of progressive intellingent whites who recognized the mistake of the pasts with regret. But the scars are deeply engrained and there remains a great many died in the wool racists who will vote race before their own welfare. These whites will deny that its racism that makes them uncomfortable with the notion of a black leader. Despite the crys for change some white folks can’t.

Norwood Holland said this on August 7, 2008 at 12:55 pm | Reply
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Eli Ganino said this on August 4, 2010 at 12:13 am | Reply

Election 2008	Obama	McCain	Spread
RCP National Average	46.3	43.7	Obama +2.6
Favorable Ratings	+21.7	+18.8	Obama +2.9
Intrade Market Odds	61.6	33.7	–
Electoral College	Obama	McCain	Toss Ups
RCP Electoral Count	238	163	137
No Toss Up States	322	216	–
Battleground States	Obama	McCain	Spread
Colorado	47.0	45.3	Obama +1.7
Virginia	47.3	46.3	Obama +1.0
Missouri	45.0	47.5	McCain +2.5
Michigan	46.3	41.7	Obama +4.6
Ohio	46.5	45.0	Obama +1.5
Florida	45.8	45.8	Tie
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